Q1 Preview: Recurring Revenue up 50% w ELD Mandate Progress…The movement in the stock price has made no sense, as it has leaked lower on little to no volume. The news vacuum should come to an end and we should get an update very shortly which should reverse the price action.
The ELD regulatory mandate just went into affect this Q so this will be the first Q where the MRR from the business should start to ramp. With over 1/3 of all inbound inquires coming from ELD customers and a sales pipeline of over 1.2M+ in Annual Recurring Revenue in the ELD business the upside is huge.
Don’t look know but while the O&G industry is seeing a bounce their Lone Worker ConnectX business could start seeing some more inquiries coming through as the cashflow of the producers starts to recover and spending budgets expand.
Revenue
Looking for 2.0M in revenue up 38% YoY but more importantly is revenue breakdown. We should continue to see increasing in MRR if nothing else from the port-over win announced in the press release in November.
“Successfully "porting over" another enterprise customer underscores the proprietary advantage of our technology and will meaningfully impact our monthly recurring revenue (MRR) next quarter.”
Looking for MRR for March ’18 of $440,000 or $5.28M up 50% YoY on an annualized basis. If you put a 5x SaaS multiple on that revenue stream alone that equates to 1.00/share or almost 100% upside before you even consider the 50% growth rate or hardware sales.
KPI WATCH
ARPU - $26.00+ Target (Up 10% YoY)
Subscribers – 16,500 Target (Up 32% YoY)
MRR - $440,000 Taregt (Up 50% YoY)
Churn Rate - <8% Target
Enterprise Client Base - >45% of Total Subs
Q4 showed a significant trend that is critical for the business going forward. They have demonstrated the ability to grow ARPU while accelerating the Subscriber base while reducing churn rate. This is the triple threat and acts as validation of the value proposition they offer.
On Valuation
Using a 2019 Target of 14.4M in revenues with Recurring SaaS revenues representing 10.3M of that on a 5x SaaS Sales and 1x Hardware Sales I get to a valuation target of 1.90/share or 250% upside if they can execute their ELD rollout.
Keep in Mind: Stock was trading 1.25/share a year ago and since then they have grown their MRR 50% since then!!! That target price doesn’t look that crazy anymore…
Just as an aside: There has been on multiple occasions guests from the Logistics and Transportation business going onto CNBC in 2018 talking about the disruptive and major change that the ELD mandate has brought to the industry. I just have found myself screaming at the TV about how there is a disruptive small cap company north of the border targeting this opportunity dead on. Clearly no one is listening as there is no volume in TRAK.V
Its time for the numbers to do the talking.
LONG