GREY:CEQXF - Post by User
Comment by
mike49on May 05, 2018 5:31pm
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Post# 27987721
RE:re: $100 Cad Wti, $3.00 CQE
RE:re: $100 Cad Wti, $3.00 CQE Heres my pers summary, there are lots of other talented posters that might add/ hope it helps you
1. Share count the same apart from a small flow thru form 2 yrs ago. Zero diutiion
2. Company appropriately went into standy on capex- but now with oil prices where they are- Dunvegan economics looks fabulous
3. Just drilled 3 wells- the 100% WI well alone was flowing at 700 boe/day of light oil after 10 days.Should get more insight on May 15th with Q1
4. They own 50% of midstream , the othe 50% was sold to Kanata for 50-odd mill 3 or so yrs ago.
5. They have a pristine shirt in terms of abandonments- a key issue for banks and other participants these days.
6. Key to liftoff is how successful they are with refinancing. They have 60MM in term debt that is coming up for maturity in 5 mths. So far radio silence from CPP.
7. Don Archibald/. H Crone back at the healm appear committed to getting it right.
Options to refinance include VPP/ midstream restructuring/ right offering/ blend&extend on top quartile LLR, etc.
Good summary ex.dont know how to do the box but whatever.
Some soft points to add...
Becoming a pure alberta play makes sense in this political/over supply environment.
solid jv partner who one day might decide to make the dunny a core area and spend accordingly
If arc or jog or Aimco or cppib or whoever writes a new note,flo-thru likely.no point in tax pools.
Progress was good on operating/water disposal costs and some new decent take-away
There is a very real chance that someone will take this private.
Tin hat time but I think cppib is in cahoots with someone else and is working the squeeze
And last,bay street sees that "3.5 times trailing annual funds flow" and no cap-ex for 6 months and goes No!No!No! Let them pound sand and ignore the day traders and their noise.
Onward