RE:RE:RE:WARNING: there will be a big push to drive down the SPMrEvilx wrote:
Don't be so sure sandy. The drop is coming tomorrow. There is very confidence in the orice, people are too eager to make quick cash by trading between yesterday's lows and today's high. Unfortunately the trading today did not look good. Unit price did not hold. This means another drop coming tomorrow. Only thing that can stop this land slide is announcement of a deal. Mr. King has to deliver otherwise no one know where this stock will find the bottom. GLTA
Let's say they close for $250M CAD in Q4, wouldn't that be preferable to closing $70M in Q2, $50M in Q3 and $100M in Q4? If so, would it mean the stock be worth less than 6.5x EBITDA right now and then be worth like 50% more in Q4, how does that make sense?
Last year, the vast majority of the deals were closed in Q3 and Q4. Was it a bad year of capital deployment because it happened in the 2nd half of the year?
Below $17 (less than 7x EBITDA), the stock is extremely cheap regardless of when the deals are done. Average revenue per share from partners in the last three years, despite problem files, was $2.54 per share. Average EBITDA around $2.33 per share. Average free cash flow was $1.78 per share. In the past three years, they have added partners for an average of $150M per year.
Being that the current share price is already trading in an extremely bearish fashion, that the dividend being paid at this moment is at 10.4%, that they have so far grown revenues and free cash flow compared to last year, that the lower end of partner additions for the past three years is higher than the potential redemptions for 2018, people selling at the current share price are betting on a catastrophic scenario that has a very slim chance of happening.