RE:YikesI keep suggesting you guys to look at the reserves and the cash as the way to value Input. I honestly believe that my method is the most accurate indicator of Input's value. Seasonality will affect cash flow, sales, etc. But we can look at the YoY reserves growth to see growth and determine a fair value.
2017 reserves - 362,000 MT
2018 reserves - 382,000 MT
Not much growth there. When looking at Input's numbers, last years Q2 report stated 362,000 MT in reserves, while this year's satements say last March's reserves are 335,000 MT. I've gone with the higher number to be conservative, as one should do when there's a contradiction in financials.
Input puts right in this release that shareholder's equity has decreased by $3 million, canola interests are down while liabilities are up. In fact, shareholder's equity is lower than 2 years ago.
If you're more of a cash flow kind of investor, OCF for the TTM is just $4 million over the 12 month period ending March 2016.
At one time the debt free balance sheet was touted as a positive (which was overly conservative in my mind, but that's when I believed Input was growing), but now debt is praised as a way to increase ROE. The growth story no longer justifies leverage to me.
There are more shares outstanding than there were two years ago, as management are still receiving very generous compensation despite mediocre performance. There are more shares than last year even with the buyback. I do not own shares, so I have no right to ask, but I think management should justify their compensation with the perfromance that you shareholders have had to sit through. Forget the share price (which is out of their control), the company isn't performing well (which is in their control). Perhaps management is earning a salary, but any options are simply giving management exposure to share price upside without giving them more downside exposure.
My calulation of the value of Input is around $1.26 right now. If you believe in the growth story of Input and want to say they're worth 1.2x BV (my BV calculation), then you could justify the current share price. I think that's foolhardy, and the performance of Input deserves no such premium.