OTCPK:AVEFF - Post by User
Comment by
skibum45on May 21, 2018 10:55pm
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Post# 28061676
RE:Plan of Arrangement Materials - Buyout DD
RE:Plan of Arrangement Materials - Buyout DDJohnnyTSX wrote: Have a look at Schedule E (Page E1) in the Plan of Arrangement book that show the 3 payexamples.
In particular, in order to pay out the whole $0.45c to AVE shareholders, DSKE would have to pay $27,096,737 CAD based on the shares out. The EBITDA required to make this payment is ~$27,900,000.
This speaks to DSKE thinking one of two things, imho:
1) they won't make the EBITDA target of $18M ($15.9M in 2017)
2) they are going to blow it out of the water as shown in example #3 using $50,000,000 EBITDA.
Anything inbetween is sort of a wash and I don't think DSKE is acquiring AVE to "break even".
I am growing pretty bullish on AVE growing its EBITDA in 2018/19 and thus bailing on AVE prior to arrangement deal might just be a mistake - even if it reaches $1.05-$1.10, imo.
John.
Not sure if you listened to the DSKE conference call recently. In discussing AVE, it really sounded to me that they expect to be paying the earnout, barring some unforseen negative surprise. Seems like it's almost a foregone conclusion for them.