Iron Brdg Res Inc. OEXFF

RE:RE:RE:Do Insiders have

[JDavis17]

ditchdigger251 wrote: Hey BF!  Velvet's acting EXACTLY like how I expected a private American oil and gas company to act:  like a Brutal Lunch Box Stealing Bully.  Come to think of it that's the same way a particular brokerage house has been acting over the past year...it explains why I think IBR's sp tanked so badly these past couple of months (actual deal rush'n collusion).  I am maybe the least surprised about Velvet coming out with a low ball offer and the offer's talking points could have come right off of their brokerage buddy's analyst reports.  They need to head things off before too much good news comes out:  higher oil rates, lower op costs, higher commodity prices, higher netbacks, possibly a left coast LNG project and the official start of IBR's potentially very lucrative crypto-mining ops.

You are accurate to portray Velvet's offer as a joke.  IBR's lands are more downdip and therefore higher pressured (gives a higher recovery factor), pretty much lined up on-strike in the same position of the Montney oil-maturity window and in close enough proximity to each other to feasibly drill up a single layer of 264 quality locations.  That's a lot of wells to compete for area gas takeaway capacity which will definitely impact Velvet's operations.  Velvet would very much like to take control of that situation for as cheaply as possible -  hence the pre-emptive ill-considered cash offer.  The move feels desperate.

I'm doing some spreadsheet work on IBR's latest P50 type well (I've managed to match a model to their info very well) as well as the latest well test data from the last IBR press release.  I'll post my work on that shortly but my impression so far is there is a ton of value on the table so understandably IBR's management is underwhelmed by Velvet's opening volley.

I'm happy to see IBR's sp finally heading up out of the analyst dungeon.  If Velvet wants to be taken seriously they'll have to ditch the cheap suit and stop imitating Rodney Dangerfield 'cause right now they're getting no respect.  I imagine other Montney competitors like Hammerhead, Paramount, Seven Gen, Harvest, CNRL, Husky etc.(maybe even the team's former employer Tourmaline) would seriously jump much higher to buy such a world class asset.  Of note - pretty much nobody wants a litigious super bully CNRL as an adjacent operating neighbour so Velvet needs to find a more generous touch in their dealings to avoid that disaster.  The can of worms Velvet opened today is all theirs.  Let the games begin!

Incidentally BBI's trading at $0.39 today with almost 5 times the number of shares for their sour deeper more expensive less oily lands.  I see BBI as an approximate, albeit conservative, analog to IBR.  So simple math to match up an equivalent value to IBR gets a $2.00 price (which is still too cheap imo).

True enough.
The only caveat is that BBI has a contiguous block (more or less) of land, whereas IBR is all broken up, interspersed with Velvet. But, by the same token, Velvet's land is broken up by IBR, and therein lies the extra value to Velvet. The efficiencies gained by owning IBR is considerable, and Velvet will have to pay a premium for that, not a stinking discount!