RE:RE:RE:RE:PYrogenesis AM Powder Profit PotentailWhen companies change from their stock being speculative, where people have pie in the sky expectations, to being actual profitable businesses, then people begin to due actual valuations based on sales and potential profits. When this happens I have noticed a bit of reality sets in, the early calculations like the ones being done now dont show a ton of revenue or profits so people get nervous and the price falls. But over time as the sales build the stock price typically begins to climb as people begin to see how much the company can really make.
this company has potential. A $200 million market cap would take about 10-20 million in yearly profits if we use a pe ratio of 10 to 20 times earnings. It seems industrial type companies get pe ratios in the 15-30 range depending on their future potential so 10-20 is reasonable to conservative for a high potential company that is just starting to get sales.
So if PYR can get to 2.5 to 4 million profit per quarter you can will that 200 million market cap ( about $2 per share). That will not take much in sales so once powder and drosrite sales start rolling it could easily happen. The big game changer will be the royalty potential on the purevap. If that pans out in 3-5 years or so I think you could see 350-500 million market cap with ease ($5 a share).
As far as Peter over promising and under delivering, I think his only mistake was getting a bit ahead of things and hoping for profitability in 2017. And maybe they could have gotten it but they chose to invest in more powder production capabilities. For the rest I think people read to much between the lines of his news releases and think things are going to happen faster then he is indicating. Peter indicated a while back that it will take time for sales to start even if compamies are impressed by the samples. Those companies will likely have contracts with thie existing supplier that are at least a year long ( and likely more) and they will have to finish those contracts or require enough addition powder due to market growth before they will be able to enter new or additional contracts. Bottom line, it will take time, people are in to much of a rush for riches.
so in conclusion, if you want a flash bang investment go somewhere else, if you are risk adverse, go somewhere else, if you want to take a shot at earning 200% to 500% on your investment over the next 3-5 years with resonable risk, this is a good place to be.
Glta