RE:RE:RE:RE:Agora video update just released. Pandora wrote: FIRSTGMAN wrote: Very good interview IMO cleared a lot of questions up.
Thks BM good work
Now more patience required.
GLE
Well for those of you that watched/listened to the interview and feel that it answered all of the questions can you now give me a view of how you see this rolling out to a typical shareholder.
For an example and for the sake of easy numbers let's use a shareholder who currently owns 100,000 shares of AAO which gives them equity in both Marcon and Fox-Tek and currently trades at 2 or 3 cents.
When this deal closes what will they be holding in their hands as opposed to the 100,000 shares of AAO the combined company. Was that question really answered in a manner that you could understand and now clearly explain? If so I would appreciate seeing it laid out.
Presumably they would still have 100,000 shares of AAO which at that point will solely be Marcon International. Will the value of that remain at 2 - 3 cents or will it be diminished?
It sounds like a shareholder will receive shares of a new company "Amalco" -- which if I understand right will be an amalgamation of Mooncor, Sensor, and Fox-Tek but rather than all 47,500,000 shares being distrinbuted they are only going to distribute 25% or 11,875,000. Based on 256M shares of AAO that means we would receive about 0.045 of a share for each share of AAO that we own. So for the person owning 100,000 shares they would receive about 4500 shares of Amalco -- instead of the 18,000 if it was all distributed.
In my mind and if my math is valid in any way the shareholder has as I say:
100,000 shares of AAO (Marcon in effect) -- per share value??
4500 shares of Amalco (Mooncor+Sensor+Fox-Tek) -- per share value??
A promise of a royalty from Amalco. ( A % of what? i.e. how is the calculation done to feed back to you as a shareholder)
It just seems to me that any future potential of Fox-Tek and possibly Sensor has just been watered down considerably. As it seems the capital gain of Fox-Tek potential that one had in owning 100,000 shares no longer exists. It appears it has now become 4500 shares (at what value?). The expected return on the original 100,000 shares rests solely now with Marcon -- how does that project for future?
From a Fox-Tek point of view it just seems like we are going through a reverse split but in a different way.
I would appreciate if anyone can give me a much better picture than what I have derived. i.e. show me I am out-to-lunch --- and I mean "show me" it's too easy to just tell me I'm out-to-lunch.
Using your analogy - looking at this as objectively as I can, here is what I come up with:
You own 100,000 shares of AAO at .02 today = $2,000
Fox-tek moves to Mooncor. You'd get 4,500 shares pro rata based on your calculation (25%) above at a price of .20 (or at least until the stampede through the door hits or a PP dilution or both) - its anyones guess what that might do to Mooncor's market cap - but at face value it will initially be set at around 11M. 1.6 plus the 9.5.
Augusta then is left with Marcon and Paragon. Would it still be worth 5.12M Market Cap? That is to be determined, but I don't necessarily see the market cap growing - at least in the near term.
Essentially, if things go "as planned" and you get 25% of Mooncor's allocation of $9.5M, you'd have $2,000 + $900 and you'd see a 45% gain in your investment. My guess is this is a bit rose colored and based on the possibility of a shareholder stampede to sell any stake you get in Mooncor as compensation - and perhaps eventual dilution in order to cashflow FoxTek, I'd lean to think that the gain could be somewhat less.
As for the Royalty - it would theoretically affect AAO's market cap (as it would be considered an asset to AAO as discussed by Allen), but whether the market discounts it due to the length of time likely required to collect the 12 milllion, is anyone's guess. I'm going to say that there is no way the royalty money comes directly into SH's pockets in the way of a dividend or some kind of cash payment.
In summary, the market still feels that this who shebang is worth 2c, deal or no deal. If folks feel that the market is valuing it wrong, then why aren't they hammering the asks?