RE:What a month capped by today's brilliant deals!Great post as usual, it got me wondering about what the chain of events that brought this package of events together might look like (I'm thinking of yesterdays two announcements as one package), there are a number of different moving parts to this deal which dont necessarily need to be linked together. I guess I'm wondering what set the ball rolling on all this? What parts of the deal are the most important for the long term strength of the company, I realize SPCEO is saying its all great, just curious about which parts are the most important? The other question is why is this all happening now?
Quick question to start
I'm assuming the capital raise will already have a number of large investors identified, who have already expressed an interest in acquiring a fair sized position in Thera. Is that correct?
How important is ending the Serono deal, do you think? Sure if you can add a million or two to the bottom line each year then do it but compared to the potential income from Trogarzo over those years or from a third drug it should be fairly minor improvement to the numbers. It doesnt seem like a strong enough reason to initiate all this. For example I can imagine they could have identified this as a source of saving money, been in negotiations with Serono about terms and earmarked some of the early revenue from trogarzo to complete it. You dont really need to raise capital right now to do this deal with Serono I think. Unless as some have said you want it completed before sales get the real pop your hoping for.
That might mean that getting an RBC analyst on board, bringing the right type of investors in and projecting stregth about the future through this capital raise are really the more important aspects of the deal than the Serono part. As SPCEO was suggesting it really feels like the deal is structured in a way that it attracts investors who believe in the potential (of Trogarzo) over the next few years and are commited to this longer term, it also feels like a deal that encourages further momentum in the SP. I think WE all believe that $20 CAD is achievable over the coming year, the nature of this deals tends to suggest others out in the market are onboard with that idea too. I'm not over egging that am I? So do you think RBC want to get involved in the Trogarzo story, some new investors (the right type) want to get involved and while they dont really immediately need the capital the deal can be structured in such a strong way that management see the positive and are happy to go ahead with it. Can getting a new (maybe important) analyst on board be sufficient reason alone to go ahead with a capital raise?
The other (speculative) aspect of this is does any of this signal that the next acquisition has been identified? It seems like a straightforward explanation for raising capital but I can see its not essential for this particular deal.
I guess I'm just curious about how all these parts came together, as I said which particular aspect may have initiated it, the chain of events. Or is this just good packaging by management of a number of positives for the company that happened to coincide?