GREY:NMKEF - Post by User
Comment by
will.caon May 31, 2018 2:13pm
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Post# 28106912
RE:RE:RE:Take over and share price
RE:RE:RE:Take over and share priceThis is not how developing mines are priced. As production gets closer it will trade based on it's projected future earnings. There may or may not be a discount depending on market hype/lithium demand/supply etc. Hype of starting production will probably lead to a peak at this time.
Orocobre is a really poor comparison. Yes they are a fully integrated producer of lithium carbonate, but they have struggled for years to ramp up production. Plagued by delays and notorious for low purity lithium carbonate they have done well because the market is so tight and they have sold alot on the spot market for more than they would get contracted.
ReduceCO2 wrote: they have a market cap of $1 billion today.
They will take 3 years to build out the facility and start the ramp-up process.
So, the valuation can go up $500 million until they get 10,000 T / year out of the factory.
They need to scale the technology and process plus it is difficult to produce, look at ORL for example.
Of course, the price will go back up but it will come back down. Or if someone really, really feels it goes to $1.5 billion market cap ($1.50/ share), you are better off to buy Orocobre because they actually produce chemicals. Make sense? This is a rational way of thinking.
I believe that the stock will go up to $1.50 in the next 3 years until they produce lithium chemicals, at least 10,000 T / year...
OR if there is a major surge in lithium producers, than NMX will also be lifted.
Lithium market remains strong for the next year.
ReduceCo2