RE:RE:RE: New Nuclear - China Building MoreThe inevitable is that Uranium prices must increase. Let us say that Uranium prices stay in the $20 to $25 range for another 10 years. CCO will be facing bankruptcy after its higher price contracts terminate. Kazatomprom will reduce or close production since it too cannot make a profit at these prices. If neither of those two can make any money all the rest will be out of business. That means production from mines steadily decreases to zero so there is no U3O8 product mined.
The only material that reactors can use is Uranium. So we will then be faced with the closure of 451 reactors that produce 11% of the worlds electricity. That means lights out in France, Germany (which uses French nuclear power plant production), a big chiunk of the USA, Ontario Canada and many other jurisdictions.
There is not a politician in the world that would risk that...they quickly get voted out.
The only option...and what makes this inevitable....is that Uranium prices MUST increase to make mining it profitable.
While I can appreciate the pessimism so frequently found here the facts of the matter are that no miner can make money with prices at these levels. It therefore boils down to whether the industrial nations of the world will tolerate blackouts and brown outs and the possible collapse of their electricity systems or prices of Uranium increase to sustainable levels.
My money is on the latter. No politician worth his or her salt will allow the lights to go out and indeed we are now seeing that with the flurry of State legislation guaranteeing output from nuclear plants in the USA.
So inevitable means that nothing but a black swan event can stop Uranium prices from increasing and the probability of a black swan event that is very low..
Putting money on a certainty is the best odds one can play. Suggest you play it.
Malcolm