SP Breakdown for 2019: 44.70 to 72.75$ per share. Interesting, so, Aphria owns 51% of Double Diamond or 51,000Kg ontop of 125,000 kg from primary sources. BUT!!!! double diamond is responsible for Labor costs, which is approx 70% costs associated with producing cannabis.
So, if
Aphria will be producing 125,000 kg of Pot at average of cost of .79$ per gram
Aphria will be producing 51% of 100,000 kg (51,000 kg) at avg cost of .23$ per gram @ 30% costs assuming
Aphria will be producing cannabis @ approx 176,000 kg @ approx .50$ per gram or less!!!!!
So lets do some math, so
.50$ per gram cash cost
.75 all in cost of sales of dried cannabis (50% avg)
Assuming 70% of 176,000 kg or (176,000,000 grams) sold = 123,200,000 grams
123,200,000 grams @ (avg sale price 6.83$ per gram) = 841 million$
All in cash cost = 92.4 Million
841 million @ adjusted EBIDTA of 30% est = 252,300,000$ EBIDTA @ 250 million shares (not sure the number) = 1.01$ per share!
Using the multiplier of industry average of tabacco @ 29.5X or Alcohol @ 31.31X or Expected for Cannabis @ 48X in 2019, you come up: 29.80$ per share or 31.62$ per share or 48.5$ per share.
Now, I know people are going to look at this and say, looks about right. BUT!!!! Aphria has over 200 million$ in the bank and they wont sit on it. They have the potential to double these estimates overnight. Not only that, I did not factor in growth of accessory income from extraction facility, which has a higher profit margin. Assumin, APhria doesnt sit on the 200 $ million I would add 50% to the ESP, as I'm 100% positive we are going to hear something in the next couple weeks of further expansions in europe. SO, Q4 2019 expect 44.70 per share, or 47.43 per share, or 72.75$ per share (estimated by Analysts). Believe it people we will be hitting 44.70 - 72.75$ per share in 2019.
Sources Below.
https://i.imgur.com/RllxAZD.png https://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/local-pot-producer-aphria-announces-greenhouse-expansion https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/aphria-inc---revenue-growth-and-sub-100-cash-cost-per-gram-metric-highlight-quarter-679851353.html
https://globalnews.ca/news/4073296/marijuana-legalization-price-of-pot-canada/ https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html