Not long now........ and we wiill all have Q2 numbers to evaluate. I still think there is at least a 60/40 liklihood of these numblers being OK, but wheteher they will be good is another question.
If we assume the grade control program is effective.......and that still remains to be seen.........and we assume that Q2 consists of one month of 11 grams plus one at 12 and one at 13 , we get approx 94,000 ounces for Q2. This would put H1 production right in the middle of guidance and I'm sure that management would regard that as successful.
Anything much less than 80,000 ounces for Q2 would I am sure disappoint the market. since it will imply that the grade control program is having limited sucess and that the previously discussed grade reconcilliation factor of around 20% will look more and more realistic.
Certainly a head grade of 14 or 15 gram is not impossible but would management want to maximise short term cash flow, or would milling more of the 4 gram low grade make more long term sense.....?? Personally I cant see being able to stockpile 4 gram material either on surface or UG. It either gets milled today or it is left in place and the reserves are reduced accordingly.
And of course the necessary refinancing gets closer by the day. Falling POG is not getting much attention here. IMO, too much downside potential to offset any short term good news that might become available next month