RE:RE:RE:RE:boardwalktechepz wrote: For BWT: they said they got 2.2x so I get 1202971 from that. Then the shares that they have are worth 79884*5.1=407,408. Finally the warrants actually hold a large value at $2.90CDN per share over purchase price 1.67 USD. Total of all three is 2.5 and change.
I would prefer if they sold all of their equity in companies but don't see that happening as it would crush the price of all of the companies they hold.
I'm not sure if they'll hit 1M in royalty with the two buyouts 1.2 would be great if they hit that.
From what I remember Loqic was supposed to be 780k per year.
One of the big ones that always kills them is "Non-cash foreign exchange and fair value changes". I think the dollar was roughly the same after the drop in the last 2 weeks.
I think your estimate is high. They only invested US$300k in BWLK. It seems you're basing your numbers on a US$425k investment, but that includes $125k from their JV partner (disclosed in financials, not initial PR). And it looks like you're calculating the total value of the BWLK investment as opposed to the gain? The cash gain is roughly $470k. Enough to cover Parry's payment plus a bit extra for office supplies. (j/k)
Their 80000 BWLK shares came from exercising some warrants, meaning they likely paid the strike (there's no indication otherwise). So the overall effect of the warrants is a gain of about 400000*2.90 = $1.2m at current prices. The actual accounting result should be higher because the 320000 warrants they still hold will be valued with Black-Scholes. I give the shares and warrants a haircut in my valuation because I think BWLK is overvalued and there's very little liquidity to make an exit (as yet, anyway).
The net
cash effect of the BWLK investment is approx +$665k since Q1.
As for Q2 royalty payments: These will depend a little bit on whether they get pro-rated June payments from the buyouts. But in the Q1 report they said the April run rate was roughly $0.37m, and then Stability kicked in as of April 24. I'm basing my numbers on that.
Couple other things:
- Logiq revenue is supposed to be about $700k per Q.
- In my last post I forgot to account for the cost of all the options grants. Those wil hit Q2 numbers
- The fair value changes were wild in 2016, 2017, with all those write-downs of old royalties. They're likely to continue going forward as they increase their exposure to volatile equities. That's one reason I'd like to see them monetize reasonably quickly, even if they miss out on some upside lottery. They have a lot of hard work to do in rebuilding investor confidence, and wild non-cash swings won't help.