GREY:ATBPF - Post by User
Comment by
PoorOpinionon Jul 03, 2018 12:06pm
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Post# 28262518
RE:Secondary Endpoints = Investment Further De-Risked
RE:Secondary Endpoints = Investment Further De-RiskedRayzzer wrote: This is how I read the results of the secondary endpoints:
Incidence of gastric or duodenal ulcers of at least 5 mm diameter with unequivocal depth
ATB-346 is better than naproxen.
0% incidence vs 24%.
Number of gastric and/or duodenal erosions and/or ulcers
ATB-346 is better than naproxen.
4 ulcers vs 203.
1.7 erosions per subject vs 12.7
Incidence of dyspepsia leading to discontinuation of study treatment
ATB-346 is safe.
No cases of dyspepsia leading to study discontinuation in either treatment group.
Change from baseline in hematocrit levels
ATB-346 is safe.
There was no difference in change from baseline in hematocrit between the two treatment arms.
Changes from baseline in whole blood thromboxane B2 (TXB2) synthesis
ATB-346 (250 mg) is as effective as naproxen (1000 mg).
The last one has further de-risked my investment. IMHO, this is sneek peak into the results of the next trial without having to do it. This is the main mechanism of action and ATB-346 was shown to be as effective as naproxen without the concern of ulcers.
I dont agree. The primary endpoint already confirmed exceptional gastric sparring and previous data has shown its impact on COX. Its great to have that re-confirmed with this great data but its not a significant derisking event for me, I'm already comfortable with these aspects of the story. Derisking next comes on the business side, the next trial is only a milestone for that. The next trial is essential for a number of reasons in the clinical development process but the chances it adds too much to the story (positive or negative) is low in my mind. A nice regional deal would be good while we wait for the right US/europe deal.