RE:RE:RE:Supply/Demand outcomes...I didn't want to go into it further, however, the next thing I was going to post was about Trade issues Shipwreck. I had just run on long already.
I think the North American market is discounting the possibility of recession. The elephant in the room is actually China U.S.A trade relations. Tarrifs with China will come into effect by the end of this week.
The Chineses market and Juan are already reacting. There is talk that China is a debt bubble waiting to be poped. I would appear that the Americans are looking to pop it. Where there is smoke there is fire? is it that hard to believe given a sino forrest experience.
It appears to me that the trade is already under way, the result would be again turn to the American dollar for safety, Hits to emerging markets, risk off, commodoties off trade. The scary part to me is that the Dow has now closed half a dozen times under the 200 MA. The S & P is getting close to cross over too.
Which makes me wonder given the geo political risk why does Poloz what to raise rates here? The only thing I can think of is he needs to raise them or he won't have any tools in the box come the big R word, cheers Matthew
P.S If I was anywhere it would be here in oil with you guys on CJ, but the the truth is I am 100% in cash If I am wrong I won't make any money. if I am right I will picking up the carcasses of dead investors 10 - 14 months out