RE:Pondering US oil pricesSource of cheap oil - possibly from hedgeslike the Hacienda Hedge - some interesting ideas
"...Last year
they sold contracts to guarantee a prices of $46 per barrel and obvious would have been better off (in hindsight) by not hedging at all. They are now looking to lock in 2019 prices and with crude at $71, they are undoubtedly getting a better price. The hedge is likely the world's largest oil trade and covers 200-300 million barrels of oil. It could be a catalyst for some selling oil." https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/the-hacienda-hedge-is-said-to-be-underway-20180511
"The recent rise in oil prices, driven in part by the U.S. decision to scrap the Iran nuclear accord, may have proven tempting for a nation seeking to set a price floor for its oil supplies. Oil options traders and brokers said a slight rise in volatility for both Brent June 2019 and December 2019 contracts may have been a result of Mexico hedging. Calendar prices for 2019 are averaging over $70 a barrel." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-11/mexico-is-said-to-take-first-steps-in-annual-oil-hedging-program
Purchasers of these hedges are generally secret. They allow speculators to involve themselves to take cheap oil (along with the risk of holding it) and sell back into the market. So at $41/b they have ALOT of margin to work with.
Purveyor wrote: So POTUS is trying to encourage oil importing nations to boycot IRAN oil.
At the same time, Tariffing is running amuck.
Now China is an ongoing skirmish front with the US.
China imports US oil.
China is now looking at tariffs on US oil imports.
"we don’t know how China will retaliate. Placing tariffs on U.S. made bicycles or whiskey is not likely to trigger the response we’re likely to see if Beijing decides to place tariffs on imported U.S. crude oil.
So while investors were willing to take protection from the initial move by the Trump Administration, the markets are not likely to flip from bullish to bearish with the flick of a switch.
At this time, we’re going to maintain our stance that this is an on-going trade dispute and not a trade war. Therefore, there’s no need to abandon stocks with a vengeance at this time. However, placing tariffs on imported U.S. crude could be the game-changer, especially given the fragile supply/demand situation in the world’s oil market."
I'm thinking if I were China, just ramp up imports of IRAN oil and acomplish
i) penalize the US on oil revenue front;
ii) P.O. POTUS by doing something he desperately doesn't want forcing his hand to coooperate.
In fact this is already underway...
https://www.orientresearchcentre.com/en/oil-and-gas-issue-4-2-9-2017/
If China ramps up US oil and begins to sever dependency on US oil, this would begin to show other countries they have alternatives... and they canrebutt the US sanctions, etc.
Maybe China can ramp up Russion oil imports... which they are doing ...see
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-01/second-chinese-crude-oil-pipeline-linked-to-russia-s-espo-opens
and gas
https://ig.ft.com/gazprom-pipeline-power-of-siberia/
Lots going on in the world beside POTUS slapping tariffs everywhere...seems more like an act of desperation before everyone else finalizes options.
Even Canada is now building expanded pipelines to the Pacific .. enough is enough on suffering these restrictions.