RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:The BULL market Thanks gdawg. The more I study this market the more shivers I get about what is coming inexorably down the pipe.
There are two features of what is coming that are different from previous bull markets. The first is that the last bull market was relatively short lived and lasted about 2 to 3 years. It was curtailed by two factors....firstly a rapid run up in supply from Kazakhstan selling directl;y into spot market rather than long term contracting which inevitably drove down the spot price and secondly the Fukushima incident which temporarily shutdown 15% of demand aswell as caused selling on the spot market.
This time the chances of another Fukushima are very very slim (billions have been spent in plant upgrades around the world to prevent it) and secondly the Kazakhs are not ramping up production and will not be able to without substantial investment.
For investors that means that the price spike is going to be higher than last time. No new mines even close to production (some minor ones perhaps but nothing of the size of Cigar Lake. It also means that it will last longer. My best guess based on available data is that it will start in late 2020 (that is when uncovered requirements become significant) and will last from 3 to 5 years as new mines are incented to be built and brought into operation. It will take some years for the supply situation to get back to normal against a backdrop of inexorably increasing demand. There are still another 56 plants to come on line in the next three or four years.
Just a matter of time before this Jack-in-the Box hits the unprepared right on the nose.
Thanks for relaying my posts onto Twitter. I am writing more on that forum these days.
Mr. Market has definitely mis priced Uranium and all its related stocks and only 40 or 50 companies for all those billions to flood into.
Best contrarian play in my entire life...and I have been around for a few years.
Malcolm