OTCPK:OEXFF - Post by User
Comment by
ditchdigger251on Jul 15, 2018 12:37am
186 Views
Post# 28317469
RE:RE:RE:New well licences...
RE:RE:RE:New well licences...Now now Casper. You're not a very friendly ghost, are ya? My share price estimates are based on detailed technical and pricing information I've given in previous posts. I should have said take my estimates with a grain of salt. But what I've laid out for value upside is not without precedent.- Advantage Oil & Gas built their stock up to $7.50/sh (roughly $1 bn market cap) from 4.5 yrs of drilling lean Montney gas (low H2S but 2% CO2 so amine sweetening required) - now that was when they were doing ~120 mmcfd from 100 wells (1500m laterals & 100m stage spacing) and $4.00/mcf gas.
What IBR has by comparision is a well design where 1 well roughly equates to 4 Advantage wells for undiscounted net value (similar TVD's & per well cost). So, again round numbers, if IBR can get to a well count of 25 in the next 3 years with oil prices near to what is now and a little bit of strengthening in gas prices (LNG will happen) then that puts IBR is a similar wheelhouse, value-wise, as Advantage was back in 2014. Those numbers are certainly drillable (and easily beaten) but can they achieve that without dilution? That's the question but from what I've heard from IBR they do think so. At this point given the great record of execution by the new team I'm believing that they can do it. But don't take my word for it. Give'em a call and ask the hard questions.