RE:RE:RE:Ivanhoe/Friedland/Sprott ConferenceWe all pick losers, Ouzo. Especially in mineral exploration. In fact, John Kaiser actually assumes most of his selections will ultimately fail in his Bottom Fishing. The few that go all the way, make up for the majority that tank. According to Kaiser, you need to hold a minimum of five companies for bottom fishing to work. He also trades in and out depending on progress. Rob isn't saying to buy only IVN and ignore everything else. He's also an active trader.
It's impossible to predict commodity prices going forward. China could be close to recession, but they have already depleted the low hanging higher grades over the past 15 years. New mines in copper and PGMs are not being brought on stream. Those already in operation can't function at a loss indefinitely. The marginal cost of production is high. That margin will determine price, not consumer sentiment.
And what if inflation is the response to a global economic slowdown, as governments scramble to raise funds to finance growing deficits? You can have a situation of stagflation, where the economy declines, as in the 70's, while prices go up. The current regime of low interest rates, driving stock markets higher, won't last forever. And when change comes, it may surprise.No matter the path, globally we're continuing to deplete higher grade resources, as the developing world continues to industrialize.