RE:OntarioBeen a while since I had a meaty discussion up in this bitznitch.
Okay I'll bite - here are my thoughts:
Everyone needs to stop this navel gazing about how much and where each MOU is coming from. Canopy has the majority of the Mous at this point and it simply comes down to demand and supply.
Canopy is stock piing to supply the demand. The question everyone should ask is: When any LP with an MOU cannot meet their supply targets who do you think each Province / Territory is going to call to get more product? The one that has product to supply.
As for Germany - I have always been very skeptical when I see the constant delays happening. Prime example of when gov. bureaucrats get involved they totally mess things up. So much for German efiiciency. Now each winning LP is limited to only 1000 kgs ? They also have to start the process all over again when they should already be half way done building in country production facilities at this point. What a waste of time.
Good thing Canopy has deals with
Spain's Alcaliber,
Spektrum Denmark and
Spektrum Czechoslovakia (Not to mention South Africa, Australia and so on.) Let's see how they all play out in the future.
re: Edibles
Right now the LPs are only going to be able to take advantage of half the sales they could have because it will only be until 2019 before (hopefully,) edibles become legal.
So when I see people throwing out Billion dollar revenues and so on - I remain cautiously optimistic, but not convinced until I see the sales numbers when rec. and edibles are added in for all the LPs. (This is just for Canada of course - the rest of the world is still playing catch up, so international sales yes, but I expect nothing spectacular on that front yet until 2020 / 2021.)
This sp is under a lot of pressure right now. There are multiple reasons for it. Various up coming timelines are going to continue to pressure the sp.
I am waiting to grab more shares and do some more averaging up in the next month or so at the lowest possible price. So keeping an eye on the Charts and up coming timeline announcements.
It's just a year away to see the full effects and numbers for legal rec. plus medical to come in. Then we will see who is what and all the hype gets stripped away from all the LPs.
Longs have been under water and have seen the sp get hit many times before. I personally have been down 50 - 75% in the early days. Just turn the darn screens off and go away for a bit.
Your sanity will thank you.
skyplt wrote: Trying to make sense of what is in store (pun intended) for Ontario. Some on this site have cited (illiteration intended) the lower than anticipated BC pre order and the German reset of its bid process as reasons for T.WEED's recent decline. Most of the badgers are crying overvaluation on significant loss last quarter.
We all know Canopy Growth is an Ontario based company. In Bruce's own words his priority is "creating jobs and saving towns." That resonates well with politicians. Just as Ontario is looking at losing jobs in the auto sector a company comes along suggesting 1000 jobs about to be created. Then there is the practicality of supply chain...and distance to market. It is the same concept as the move toward buying vegetables grown within a 100 km radius of where you live. Transportation costs will be low...and again, the trucking industry in Ontario could use a boost. It will not be lost on Ontario politicians (they may not be the most honourable people, but not stupid and know an employed voter is a happy one). Then there is oversight...with the growing facilities in your backyard the inevitable government visits will be easy and inexpensive.
It is anticipated Ontario's demand will be about equal to all the other provinces combined. My belief (trying to hold onto bullish thoughts as this stock declines 35 percent) is the Ontario announcement is a couple of weeks away and Canopy should factor prominently.
As for the loss last quarter I am perplexed why some are so focused. Canopy has no choice but to ramp up its supply for rec. It has no market until 17 Oct. Are the bashers suggesting Canopy wait until the market is legal before expanding? They have to hire now, or there will be nobody in place come 17 Oct. Even this Oct date is overly pessimistic. Provinces will need to have the shelves stocked on opening day...this means product leaving Canopy sometime in early Sept, thus orders by first of Aug. We are literally days...maybe one or two weeks...from this process starting to wind up in a big way and the stock is on the decline?
I did not even mention edibles, drinks, and medical.