RE:RE:RE:WTFEdiblesRlife wrote: 1condor, look at my analysis below and tell me why you think WEED is way overvalued????? I'm sick of people pointing to current earnings not supporting the share price, this company has always been about future earnings and potential and now that it is right around the corner why do people look to the past. The past does not represent the future. With Ontario included they are going to have around 100,000 kg locked up for sale in the next year in Canada alone at a minimum. If they profit say $2.5/g they are at a $6.5 billion market cap from Canada sales alone. Now add in the value of the international exposure and companies WEED owns. The value of their brand, the impending opening up of more markets around the world. Doesn't seem far-fetched to say that WEED is actually undervalued at these levels. Of course there is spec involved and if you don't like investing in speculation stay out of the equity market all together as 95% of equities are valued on some sort of speculation. | Existing supply deals | year 1 |
| Newfoundland | 8,000.00 |
| PEI | 1,000.00 |
| Nova Scotia | 4,000.00 |
| New Brunswick | 4,000.00 |
| Quebec | 12,000.00 |
| Ontario | 25,000.00 |
| Manitoba | 6,500.00 |
| Saskatchewan | 6,500.00 |
| Alberta | 30,000.00 |
| BC | 5,719.00 |
| Yukon | 300.00 |
| Nunavut | |
| NWT | |
| | |
| | 103,019.00
2.50 profit/gram
= ~$250 million in profit
*25 p/e gives a 6.5 billion market cap |
1condor wrote: Gimmedacash...I know I sound like a broken record on this board over the past couple months. But here I go again... WEED is way overvalued and the earnings are not there to support the share price. Speculators are leaving the stock (with their hefty profits) and shorts are piling on. Why are so many on this board not aware of this?? Investing is not rocket science...just use a little common sense on this one. I do not hold any stock in this company but have done short term trades on the stock in the past.
Thank you for your post. As you might know, I like doing calculations as well:) It is always preferable to make cautious/conservative estimations but let's make a bit optimistic one for a change. Let's say we're gonna lock in 100 tonnes with provinces at let's say $5.5/g. Medical revs are going to be probably around $120m. International sales, who knows? But what about all the online and retail sales, where our margins are going to be much higher. I think I remember correctly that Bruce mentioned they are producing around 100 tonnes per 1m sq feet, is that right or maybe someone mentioned that here? If that is true, we can produce 240 tonnes with our current licensed sq ft, 100 tonnes goes to provinces ($550m), 15k for medical sales ($120m) and let's say 50 tonnes perhaps as a retail/online sale at let's say 8$/g and therefore $400m in sales. I bet provinces will call us to provide them with additional products because they will probably run out. Let's say we sell them our remaining 75 tonnes at $5.5, which is $412m. That would be $1.48b in total sales. I probably overrated the sales but don't forget all the sales from our craftgrow partners and also the sales from the beverages and of course edibles that are going to hit the market in the 2nd half of 2019. Let's say we're gonna have 30% net margin, which would be 444m in profits. If we use the PE multiple of 25x that EdiblesRlife suggested, that would imply a market cap of $11.11b. I'll bet and am confident enough to say, there is no way we hit under $1b in sales until the end of 2019 with the upcoming beverages and edibles. Furthermore, investors might be willing to pay more than 25x earnings for the first profitable year of the company, who knows. Let's discuss it further, shall we?
Bibi