RE:Disappointing about the pull-back, but it it let me get backWelcome back dosperros! Earnings are next week. Under normal circumstance they should have EBITDA betweenUS$107-115mm. EPS should range between .63 and .75 per share. Consensous is .49 (RBC is at the high end with .58 for the quarter).
You never know with RYAM though...the wildcard and weakness is the management team. They have run this company into the ground since the IPO and yet somehow still have their jobs. Many mistakes and no accountability. Too bad the Tembec management team didn't get more of the power in the acquisition. The board is a staggerred board which protects the management. Seems the board puts management's and their own interests before the shareholders. The two reasons why I am still positive is:
(1) Forest products are almost all in a huge uptrend. Most of RYAM's products are doing well. SC ethers are booming, Lumber doing great, Paper Pulp is a huge winner (and surprise) and Paperboard is holding at high levels for the last 2-3 years. The only area that RYAM is sufferring in is acetate...no surprise as this is RYAM legacy...another sign that management are bunglers! All of TMB's products are going great (except newsprint which is quite a small percentage of the sales/EBITDA).
(2) Marcato Capital has made a play here. They are an activist investor and have zeroed in on RYAM's inept management. They got a seat on the board and signed a standstill until 2020 which bought RYAM management some time but I expect them to really put the pressure on if RYAM does not deliver in the next 12 months. Marcato has a good record of increasing shareholder value and this one is ripe for some activism.