RE:What we knowAnother old shorter with new ID..
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Member Since: July 17, 2018 EmilyTrue wrote: I’ve been long on Bbd for a while and recently find myself questioning its future. I think it’s safe to say we had another over hyped failed Airshow. This has become the norm for Bbd for the past several years. It is too bad we had to give away our precious Cseries due to lack of demand. Frankly the competition scares me in that segment. Although Embraer’s E2 jet is not a clean sheet design, it is 75% revamped from the E1, producing similar savings to the Cseries. There are many more E1s flying around than Cseries, making it a pretty easy decision for airlines that need to replace older planes because they won’t need new simulators, pilot training, and maintenance expenses. Also, Embraer now teaming up with the deepest pockets in the industry gives me an uneasy feeling. It made total sense for JetBlue to order the A220 as they have an all Airbus fleet. Why have other airlines that had LOIs for several years not firmed up even after the JV. I would of thought they would be rushing to get in line. It’s also too bad that we most likely won’t ever see a larger variant as it wouldn’t make any sense for Airbus to put effort into an aircraft that would compete with their 320neo which they make %100 profit on as opposed to %51 on the Cseries. I understand that this is only one part of the company, but the others aren’t much more reassuring. I know the lovers of this stock have come to terms with the outcome of the Cseries and are now betting on the Globals to save the day. A lot of the hype surrounding them sounds very similar to the one going around before the Cseries entered service. Just last year the industry was talking about how the business jet industry was dead, and all of sudden, now that the new 7000 will be EIS this year, they tell us that there is big demand. What exactly does backlog till 2020 mean for Bbd? If the past tells us anything, I can’t imagine them producing more than 15-30 a year for the next couple of years. I don’t know what the margins on the Globals are but what I do know is Bbd has $6.5 Billion of debt maturing in the next 5 years, with the first $600M starting next year. Remember, we only get paid on DELIVERIES. Realistically, the Q400s and Crjs aren’t helping much either, as they’ve had to slow down production due to poor sales. I would love to know how much Delta is paying for their recent order of 20 Crjs. All this, and we’re still committed to another $900M over the next 4 years to AB, and they lowered their estimated overall revenue by half a billion for this year. Transport division is doing well, but still not a significant money maker. I figure %8 margin minus %30 share of Caisse leaves us with roughly $2B profit over the next 5-10 years for the total backlog of $35B. Based on everything we know, it points to Bbd possibly running into financial trouble again beyond the next 3-4 quarters. Only this time, absolutely no chance for another bailout. I do think next weeks Q2 results will be good. Bellemare has done an excellent job, mainly for all the layoffs, but I worry if the family has already done unrepairable damage to this company before he came. Still hoping for the best. GLTA