When others come up short
October 17 will be here in a blink of an eye. Aphria, along with other LPs, have been holding inventory back in their vaults in anticipation of strong initial demand. There remains a lot of uncertainties about what demand levels will actually be, but better to have more than enough to satisfy demand than not enough.
For many people, October 17 will be a bit of a novelty. They may have tried cannabis back in high school or college but it is not a part of their regular day to day lives. These users are the real target market for the adult use market.
One can assume, at least initially, that current daily users will continue with their current source as it will most likely be available at a lower price point than what is available from government sources. The non-regular users, however, will have a preference to purchase something they know is safe, properly labeled with THC | CBD content, and legal to purchase.
After the novelty wears off, and presuming the initial experience from that first purchase was good, they may choose to start to replace some of their alcohol purchases with cannabis. When they come back for a subsequent purchase, they may or may not stick with the same brand of their first purchase, but they will most likely try a different strain looking to try the different effects.
This is where having product on the shelves will be important, and Aphria will be in one of the best positions to have it available. After a consumer has made a few different purchases, they will determine what they like and what they dont based solely on THC | CBD and effect. They will not care who grew it or what the brand is, at first at least. However, habits will start to form at this point and this is when branding will start to matter. Aphria will have plenty available when others fall short.
Neufeld was smart by halting wholesale sales to other LPs earlier this year. If he hadnt done this, others would simply buy up Aphrias inventory to hold until the squeeze, as they recognize where the crucial branding point will be as adult use ramps up. Rather, it will be Aphrias various brands that will now be burnt into consumers minds.
In C-45s limited advertising framework, it appears Neufeld his playing his cards smartly, and has a killer poker face.
Aprhia long!