Trade War Talk OverratedEver since Trump was elected, many in the news media has been pulling the fire alarm every five minutes. They have nurtured a sense of doom, which is unreasonable given the current economic climate. It is not a question of supporting Trump or not supporting Trump. You can be opposed to Trump, yet recognize the business climate is excellent. It has not translated into economic Armageddon. Quite the opposite. Unemployment in the US is now 3.9% and GDP growth is running 3 to 4%. I don't remember a time when the unemployment rate was ever this low. It's become a barrier to job growth since business is having a hard time finding skilled workers. They are ready to expand production, but can't. Economists have been assuring us for years that GDP growth cannot exceed 2%, and that was on the optimistic side. The fact is the experts, most of whom have never run a real business in their lives, were completely wrong. Sticking with trade:
1)The EU and USA recently ended their dispute, when the EU offered some concessions. I suspect this is what Trump wants from China. He puts up a giant laundry list, and then settles for less than half. He doesn't get everything he asks for, but doesn't leave any money on the table either.
2) NAFTA is still here, and everyone is still talking. Progress has been slow but steady. It should be noted, the Canadian dollar and Mexican Peso have barely budged since Nov 8, 2016, the night Trump was elected. CAD was $0.75 then. Now it's $0.77. MXN was 18.3 to the USD. Today it's marginally lower at 18.57. If the trade dispute was serious, this would be reflected on the FOREX.
Can there be an economic downturn? Of course. Markets go up and down. The biggest challenge in my opinion is a massive growth in public and private debt. This is global phenomenon, which has nothing to do with trade.