Deja vu all over again?While losing interest in New Gold after they sold Peak, I am picking up indicators suggesting a new uptrend in PM.
In 2004 I was closely following the macroeconomic analysis of Stephan Roach, Chief economist for Morgan Stanley. Even at that early date Roach was predicting an economic recession based upon imbalances in the "triple deficits" - government, trade, & current account. He also observed that all modern recessions began with an "oil shock" which he explained was not represented by nominal cost, but rather by a rapid rate of appreciation. (Think war with Iran)
I learned then that those whose far vision was better than 20/20, are most often quite early. And as such Roach was ridiculed and generally scorned by Wall Street until he was shipped off to head up Morgan's China operations. Four years later the worst recession in 80 years slammed into the economy and caused the loss of trillions of dollars in wealth, but only after the housing/CRE bubble burst and a financial crisis brought Wall Street to its knees.
Those who might be wondering about the history lesson, I would suggest that those three deficits are presently elevating at a critical rate, due in large part from Trump Administration's tax policies and disruption of trade relationships.
Now before some knuckle-dragging, Neolithic trumpy attacks me for daring to criticize their glorious leader, let me be clear - failure to view clearly present day economic developments - out of some sort of cult worship - is a recipe for personal financial disaster. Which is probably just what they deserve except they will bring many others down with them.
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