RE:RE:RE:Value - Back of the envelope analysis...Why am I pumping? I'm just bullish and getting a gist and even from Adrian Day that there seems to be the underlying tone that as NSU shareholders we should "acquiesce" (to use another posters' adjective) to an offer just because an offer is made. If it wasn't already obvious I'm hoping to make it as obvious as day that Lundin's offer is trash...period. Even at CAD $7.50 I'm arguably seriously undervaluing NSU which can account for commodity and/or any other risk you want to throw at NSU. I could easily justify a CAD $10 price and that still does not overvalue NSU. So as far as I'm concerned I'm more than happy to see this play out. Considering how NSU acquired Timok...there were clearly many a mining company asleep at the wheel while NSU stole Timok from Lundin.
To respond to your other points...
1) Yes copper and zinc have been hit hard but the key concern is what copper will look like at the time production is expected and arguably the average over the mine life. To use the current drop would of course be a great tactic if you were in the market to purchase related commodity assets...much like Lundin has done. They arguably began at a $5 equivalent bid and dropped it to $4.75. In the latest conference call, the CFO remarked how the current price can be seen as an advantage in that copper is expected to be in less supply at exactly the time Timok is slated to go into production. If you're trying to snag one of the best copper assets in the world, Lundin's tactic was not seen favourably in the least.
2) A valid point IMO but I think the asset and political situation with NSU is one of the most favourable I've seen. Couple the quality of the assets and the low risk and let me know if you have anything similar and I'll be there. I'll happily be overweight NSU to make a certain gain then only a possibility in some other stock. At the end of the day if you thought differently you wouldn't be here and at least you have the decency to state you're looking for a better entry. As I've outlined, I'm actually fantasizing for a better entry but not so sure I'll be so fortunate for many of the reasons I've given.
The risk of course of not being invested is you wake up to another bid. This is highly likely IMO. I'm not about to pretend that I'll be able to time this and some other investment.
3) Yes agreed. Depending on the nature of any strategic partnership it could actually value NSU at a much higher valuation than the current bid. It also may not preclude another offer coming in. It is a highly variable possibility but in the end there is nothing to deter me from my investment in NSU. It's only the traders that need to be concerned if anything and frankly I couldn't care less about such speculators. I only would care in that this possible disappointment may allow me the opportunity to pick up NSU shares at a lower cost.