RE:RE:Earnings out Aug 9th First, I'm long the new company
I'm also realising that NAL was being poorly run / the debt load was unmanageable. We are lucky to get Tervita to come along and take our listing a breath life into what would have been a bankrupt company in a few years even with OIL at 60.00++
Going forward we are going to have to pump out (pun) ~100MM of free cash flow/year to get the debt under control. Oil at 50.00 will not do it, oil at 60.00 might get us close Oil at 70++ will get us there.
There are 2 things that we don't have much control over that will be deciding factors
1. The WCS to WTI differential at 30/BBL we are not looking good.
2. The CAD/USD exchange rate. at 1.3 CDN to the USD that is a HUGE tailwind
we need to get the differential down to 10-20 /bbl and keep the exchange rate at 1.2-1.3
The lack of Volume is extremely concerning. We have been trading as Tervita for 13 days and the total volume over those 13 days is about 175,000 or 12-13K / day.
I'm hoping that we are going to look back at these early days with little volume and thing Ohh dam I should have bought more. Time will tell as with all things.
Bottom line is we have 2-3 year of runway to work with now and things are looking better than they were last summer. its time to get the word out and investment bankers/indexes buying stock.
GLTA