RE:Iranspike55 wrote: What happens when Iran's oil comes off the market?
Are all the traders afraid of the Trump factor, releasing oil from the reserve etc.
I think the price might pop all at once in real time as it happens.
We're probably in a slight surplus right now. However, there is in my estimate <1MM bbl/d spare capacity in the world. Furthermore, US growth stagnated early. Venezuela keeps dropping 50k bbl/d monthly. Markets would likely be in balance by year end as is.
Iran is extra. Any other outages are extra. In all likelihood we could see a 1mm bbl/d deficit by year end and widening. Soon there will be no spare capacity in the world. At that time, a SPR release will actually be positive for crude prices as a signal the deficit can't be filled any other way.