RE:RE:RE:RE:Are We Doomed?Gottofly wrote: "the smell" you refer to is coming from Trump. Turkey's challenged economic situation has been exacerbated by his volatility and rhetoric. He enjoys picking a fight and continues to exert his brand of alpha male puffery in situations that are traditionally handled via a more diplomatic form of negotiation. His stance against Canada is another example. He is another extreme form of political risk in the work of stock evaluation. My view is that VLE will come back but shareholders will require patience and a long timeframe for value recoup.
Read up on mexico's currency/debt crisis in the mid-90's or the currency/debt crisis in Asia in the late-90's, they seem pertinent. These things have real economic factors too, and similar solutions and longer term impacts. I agree Trump is making this worse, you have to think they are doing this for reasons that go beyond ego's and pastors though. I'd be surprised if they aren't looking for a more compliant Turkey, if not regime change then at the very least a Turkey that plays by America's rules.
Erdogan's resistance to outside interference probably has some validity but its not going to find a solution to the economic problem. He seems to be forcing himself into a corner in portraying the international establishment (political and financial) as the problem when the fact is they are also the solution too. Clearly he doesnt want to accept a solution that would put a brake on Turkey's economic growth, and cause him domestic political problems, when that is likely going to be part of the package from any body that steps up with a solution to end the immediate crisis. Take one example, an independant Central Bank, any bailout package is going to demand greater independance meanwhile Erdogan is interferring more and more in the Central Bank's processes. Who is going to compromise there? In Mexico and Asia the immediate crisis was ended with bailouts but the reforms demands and the lingering impacts caused recession, regime changes, financial reforms over many years, Erdogan clearly doesnt want any of that, the Asia crisis saw off Suharto a 30 year military dictator of Indonesia, I'm sure Erdogan has been reading his Wikipedia page.
My reading is we are at a stalemate, both sides need to find a compromise solution, and neither are ready to go there. Meanwhile the markets remain in panic mode. I expect some solution will be found on the basis that many players have something to lose if this escalates but there is no garentee it wont be drawn out and messy.
I agree with you the VLE project remains valid but is going to require patience. The crisis, itself, should be over well before VLE needs new financing or is looking for an exit based on how these crisis have run in the past. You could argue both the Mexico and Asia crises had a similar mix of politics, egos, dictators and all-round nutjobs but ultimately got resolved, we can only hope for the same.