RE:Aimia/Aeroplan - Court Battle vs Air Canada Option Some legal questions and thoughts…
Are there provisions in the existing partnership agreement between Aimia/Aeroplan and Air Canada regarding bad faith conduct, and acting in a manner detrimental to the mutual economic benefit of the partnership?
Typically in partnership agreements, there are provisions to this effect…that the parties must act in good faith, and in the best economic interests of the partnership.
If so, Air Canada and others may be liable in a lawsuit for significant economic damages as a result of their conduct towards Aeroplan.
The "hostile" takeover attempt by Air Canada and thugs was one clear example of bad faith, and acting in a manner detrimental to the Aeroplan economic partnership.
One way to resovle this legal matter would be for Aimia/Aeroplan to negotiate the sale of Aeroplan to a competitor of Air Canada at a price of $450 million.
This price would be considered higher than the price offered by Air Canada and would constitute a reasonable best effort by Aimia/Aeroplan to mitigate the economic damages.
Then, Aimia/Aeroplan could initiate a lawsuit against Air Canada to recover the damages it incurred (economic loss) as a result of Air Canada's conduct.
The amount of the economic damages that Aeroplan could recover would be over $1.55 billion. There are various ways to calculate the damages:
• $2.00 billion (NPV) - Air Canada values its new internal loyalty program
• $0.45 billion ($450 million) - Aeroplan sale proceeds from an Air Canada competitor
• $1.55 billion - Economic damages to be recovered by Aeroplan in a lawsuit against Air Canada
Other methods of calculation could include an analysis of the share price of Aimia.
Furthermore, perhaps Aeroplan could obtain an injunction against Air Canada from developing (directly or indirectly) a competing loyalty program.
In the meantime, the Air Canada competitor would continue to develop and expand globally Aeroplan 2.0.
One way or another, Air Canada would need to pay.
Just some thoughts…
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justbull4u wrote: Here are some initial conversations from different Bullboard users about an Aimia/Aeroplan initiated lawsuit against Air Canada.
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Actually, an Aimia/Aeroplan initiated court battle would be a good idea.
It would buy time to negotiate...and even delay Air Canada from launching their own internal new loyalty program...maybe for a long time as court battles are generally quite lengthy.
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An extra $100 million to $150 million?
Humm...looks like they are pulling from their petty cash fund.
They will need to look a little bit harder and remember where they hid the gold.
Air Canada values their new loyalty program at over $2 billion (NPV) and they would need to build it from scratch. Lots of risks with that strategy. They may attract their elite frequent fliers...but it would be a tiny fraction of the current Aeroplan members.
Aeroplan 2.0 has a 5 million member lead over Air Canada's potential new program.
Plus, Aeroplan 2.0 has global potential.
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Calin Rovinescu
Has already said he'd top it up 100 to 150 Mill. at most in another news link somone posted yesterday.
So now were at $400 Mill. if taken would be the minimum cash portion.
Wonder if Mittleman is in the green at this price.
They have a board member, but the baord decision may not have to be unamious.
This could even go to a court battle before anything happens, nothing will be finalized anytime soon.