RE:RE:RE:RE:Bruce Linton on Bloomberg.TheDirtyNorth wrote: Koukouroukou wrote: How can we be excited and not a bit worried????
You got Canopy and Constellation bringing their expertize in creating huge competition to Tinley
Because Tinley operates on a massive jurisdictional island than WEED & STZ have no access to until US federal legalization. If Tinley gets out of the gate properly over the next 6-7 months (as in, permanent facility built out and operating, with strong sales growth), it won't matter what it is happening in Canada, Tinley will already have won by any real definition of the word.
For example, if TNY is selling ~6 million bottles a year at an average of ~15 USD wholesale price (remember that's 6 dollar cocktails, and 30 dollar liquors), that's 90 million USD in revenue. If we borrow margins from the alcohol industry for a moment, a decent brewery/distillery is pulling on 30% margins. This would mean that TNY is pulling ~27 million USD in profit. Even at a fairly conservative forward P/E of 15/1 puts TNY at a 400 million dollar (USD) market cap, which is just under a 10 bagger from current valuation. Stock price, even taking future rounds of finance (dilution) into account, would probably be sitting around 5.00 in this scenario.
That's a massive win for TNY and everyone on the board who is actually a holder.
So stop worrying, nothing happening in Canada matters to Tinley's success in California, and for at least the next 12 months, only California matters.
TDN, I always enjoy reading your posts. If Tinley can get the permanent facility running anywhere near it's 10,000,000 bottle capacity, we will be laughing.