RE:RE:RE:At current metals prices, this company is not profitableAlfTanner,
My initial model for Q2 used assumptions of 65 g/t Ag, 4.06 percent zinc, and 1.8 percent lead, so the estimate was high at EPS of 6.2 cents per share.
Once the production report came out, I revised my grade assumptions to 42 g/t Ag, 3.63 percent zinc, and 1.39 percent lead which lowered the EPS to 4 cents per share. So the model does a pretty good job of predicting top line revenue.
You assume a 20 percent increase in silver production to 372k oz.
My assumptions are following the mine plan, they were scheduled to get into the main zone last month, so I am using the 65 g/t silver grade from Table 16.2 of the San Rafael PFS. The average zinc grade in the main zone is 4.79 percent, and 2.08 percent for lead. In my Q3 estimate I am using a zinc grade of 3.7 perecent and a lead grade of 1.7 percent.
So my silver production numbers are 372k from Galena and 145k from Cosala for a total of 512 k silver ounces. My silver price assumption is $15 USD per ounce.
My zinc production estimate for Q3 2018 is 9.5 million pounds which is slightly higher than your estimate of 9.35 million pounds, and I am assuming $1.10 USD per pound zinc for Q3.
On lead I dialed back my price estimate to 90 cents per pound and I expect production of5.7 million pounds of lead at Galena and 3.9 million pounds of lead at Cosala.
With those assumptions, my profit estimate is $2.6 million USD or 6.2 cents per share.