RE:DID NSU NOT STEAL TIMOK FROM RESERVOIR MINERALS???My experience and gut instinct in takeovers and the merger/arbitrage game say that IF a 100% company buyer appears, the number is going to be maybe $5.50-5.75.
Some discount to NAV or NPV for the buyer, and something more than what Lundin is going to fail to get with their direct to shareholder bid. It might be Lundin that offers more and agrees to a friendly in the end.
Mgmt can easily look good to shareholders if they get at least 10% more, and probably 15-20% more by holding out a recommendation against tendering for the Lundin offer.
The lower zone IS worth something. THere is CASH on the balance sheet. And the mine inEritrea has some value too.
Add it all up and discount 10-15% and everyone should be pretty happy on all sides of the deal, and lets not forget your favorite bankers and lawyers on Howe St. and Bay st. in the deal. They need some bigger paydays lately in the mining departments there too!