Share Price - Minimum Estimated ValueSo let's build on Fulogas numbers which appear to be correct add some assumptions and generate a minimum share price value estimate using net present value(NPV). I'm using minimum values because I'm using Fulogas low lithium price of $10K, high production costs, high capex and only 10 years of mine life which we all know is laughably low. In other words, in the most conversative case, this is how I estimate CYP value.
Capex Est: $400MM
Production Years : 10
Annual Free Cash Flow: $170MM
Discount Rate: 10%
Using these numbers as a base, the NPV is $644,576,407.
Shares Outstanding: 80MM
Let's also assume that the $400MM capex is achieved using a mix of 1/3 equity and 2/3 debt. Assuming the capital is raised at $1/share, this would add 132MM shares to the current 80MM resulting in 212MM shares.
NPV of $644MM divided by 212MM shares is $3.04/share.
Lots of assumptions here. Mine life is way longer than 10 years. $400MM capex might be way high. The big unknown is at what price can the next raise be achieved. $1? $2? These are major influencers to share price but $3.04 is my notional minimum target.