My projection for Q3Q3 financials are due September 21st (accoriding to SEDAR).
Here are some scenarios I put together, feel free to pick them apart if you'd like. I have ignored the effects of COGS considering they are historically low (95-97%). However, there is a new CFO/Controller, so this may get adjusted during the quarter as opposed to year end.
"Worst case" scenario:
Revenues: $620,000 or less.
Expenses: -$900,000 or more
Net loss: -$280,000 (excluding other items)
- Although this scenario means that they are still breaking records on the revenue side (about 21% increase Q over Q and 94% YoY), in my opinion they are underperfoming considering the AIR aquisition.
- Expenses for last Q were about ~$790,000, so expenses jumping up to -$900,000 would be a little high, but considering the new personnel they aqcuired (AIR) and the manufacturing output from Novarial, this could happen.
"Ok" scenario:
Revenues: $750,000 - $800,000
Expenses: -$850,000
Net loss: -$100,000 - -$50,000 (excluding other items)
- This is a likely scenario considering Q3 is spring time when allot of projects are starting up.
- Expenses would be up around ~$70,000 reflecting more payroll and other expenses
"Best case" scenario:
Revenues: $900,000 - $1,000,000
Expenses: -$800,000
Net Profit: $100,000 - $200,000
- Considering the consolidation of AIR and Pioneer Aerial, this would mean that they have nearly doubled thier revenue capacity, also some revenues have been coming in from High Eye and possibly Novarial (?). With seasonaity in effect, this could actually happen assuming they have enough pilots.
- Expenses would be a bit higher than last Q, but would show a slight stabilization. For a company the size of UAV, getting costs under control early on is a big deal. Lets hope it happens!
Overall, UAV will beat last years annual revenue of ~$1,027,000. In Q1 and Q2 they have already made 86% of last years revenues.. all it takes is another ~$140,500 to match last year.
As far as market evaluation compared to its immediate peers (FLT, DVR), there is nothing to compare. DVR's annual revenue (last time I checked) was about $250,000. and is currently valued at about 7 million.
FLT's annual revenue is 0 (ZERO!) and is valued at about 231 million (????). I think the market is picking up on the fact that FLT is WAAY over valued becasue the SP has been on a decline in hte past 6 months... But so has UAV, so I guess that point is moot.
My price target for UAV has been 25-34 cents for a while. Depending on this years annual revenue, would put UAV at a x15 multiple.
Most drone stocks are trading far higher than that (Last I checked it was roughly x30, but that is based off of companies like amazon and DJI.. so...)
I dont think UAV will give us much news before financials are released BTW...
But they are attending the Drone Expo in Las Vegas which is nice.
Anywho, happy trading.