TSXV:FCO.H - Post by User
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greggegenon Sep 05, 2018 2:30pm
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Post# 28567066
RE:RE:RE:Last update was August 16 , that was 21 day ago
RE:RE:RE:Last update was August 16 , that was 21 day agoI remember you from the early Formation days...I'm still stuck in 'long only' mode here in London...since Dec 2006 @ C$2.87...with all the intervening roller-coaster rides. I was then captivated by the strategic positioning of the only pure (super alloy) grade/integrated cobalt play....when the ICP also had the Bear Creek/Sunshine hydrometallurgical facility (with a few $million in refining revenues every year too). I invested more in the well grounded metrics of the first BFS and technical reports: measured resource over 2.6 million tons with an average grade of 0.56% cobalt, 0.59% copper (another 1 million tons inferred). With a 0.2% cobalt cut and a 10yr lom, capex of $138m (including the metallurgical complex for under $70m as was then!) and the 7.5% discount rate...and metal spot @ $36/lb...they projected a pre tax NPV of @ $315m with IRR over 50%. Undiscounted the pre tax NPV was ~ $570m. But that is ancient history now.
We know markets have been roiled a few times since... and regulatory approvals were painfully slow. And TSX mini-miner price action/manipulation b.s. that goes on... has bitten chunks out of us along the way. But we also used to get more news flow...even when it was disappointing...and another fair gripe, IMO the management teams have been comfortably over-compensated over the years...like many small cap C-suite titans. But we were still getting closer as cobalt applications worldwide accelerated dramatically. So I remain puzzled/frustrated by our shift in strategic direction and apparent slack in execution/momentum over the past 12-18 months. Cobalt demand has skyrocketed while we have yet to raise sufficient money to stick any shovels in the ground!!!. And while I am not entirely convinced that the company isn't squandering a strategic advantage by ditching sulphate production in a bid (at this late date?) to fast track both the mine and commercialisation of ready concentrates....even this revised lower-capex, faster cashflow route feels terribly SLOW. Maybe management will still surprise us...but I remain concerned watching the cobalt sector thrive while we are in another price slump. The Aussie investor's...howsoever opportunistic they may be....have made valid criticisms which deserve more of a response. And as we keep burning daylight (didn't John Wayne say that?), I am increasingly concerned that we may see markets get whipsawed sooner rather than later by external events (watch banking defaults in Italy/Turkey/China/S.America??) before eCobalt gets going and the stock rebounds. Maybe I'm too pessimistic over here...but it doesn't quite feel like the story it could have been! Cheers, G. Egen