GREY:ATBPF - Post by User
Comment by
Jefferam1on Sep 11, 2018 9:23am
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Post# 28596272
RE:Realistic Price Targets
RE:Realistic Price TargetsLet's take a smiple approach to this:
The latest deal with South Korea was for 13 Million, it also states this represents about 2% of global NSAID market. Plus its an early deal while there is still lots of risks (although given that the deal itself is somewhat de-risks because milestone payments).
This deal is only for ATB-346.
13 Million / 2% = 650,000,000 valued market cap for ATB-346
On the bases of this deal along Antibe is accepting a valuation of 650M. Plus remember it's early.
ATB-346 is about 11B in annual sales, the market for ATB-352 is 1/2 that around 6B annualy.
So if ATB-346 is worth 650M, ATB-352 should be about 325M.
These two together is 975M /260M shares = $3.75
Keep in mind as this is de-risked, the value should go up.
Technically we should easily be able to get ot $4.00 over time if all goes good and all trials pass with success. I didn't even bring in their other pipline drugs.
That being said my price target is $2.00 by end of 2019. I like to be more conservative. Plus I have no idea if there is a volumn discount on the big North American/Eurpoe deal we end up with if all good (assuming not a take over). Plus it will take time to get full value as 352 isn't even in Phase 1 clinical yet.
To summarize, my price target is $2 End of 2019 but there is definetly room to be north of $4.00