Trader35Added a link below. Thanks Trader35 for link on article. Good research to read. In article I would question the assumed storage end of injection season being at article est 3.35 TCF. I do agree and expect prices of HH spot to rise in winter. I prefer to uses an assumption adjusted from my prior low spot price HH and look for low NG spot $2.66 on a date within timeline to reach end of injection season. If $2.66, yes a big U win if we see HH reach $4 plus months thereafter.
It is important in studying NG to compartmentlize by regions for winter demand. In the south salt storage has declined. It is very important to track the storage for winter in the upper USA mid and Atlantic regions. The storage is critical and southern line system does not extend to these upper regions. Big winter U price gaps occur on freezing in north and cold fronts delivering snow or very cold temps connecting through the dots to Dallas Memphis Atlanta
Production is omnipresent, it can be increased exponentially in next 9 to 11 injection reports with 7 injections on an average of 90 BCF. Injection season may end late if a warm mild late fall occurs in upper states. Thus I believe we should see 3575 BCF (3.575 TCF); exiting injection season, well above assumption 3.35 TCF.
HH s a benchmark, it is not only Hub supply point in pipeline system. Production in south has increased and does not require the same capacity in underground or above ground storage as does the upper states facing freezing winter temperatures. Keep in mind our ETF price relates to HH spot price. Price spikes at other Hubs reflect regional supply / demand.
i like the article and do see a potential strong Etf price high oh HNU or Dgaz / Boil in winter. So let us see actual storage and forecasts late November to better determine probability and lower risk trading into NG Dec through March.
A good read on production side link below
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36934#
Cheers Manx