The Short & Simple TradeEnd of injection season expect minimum 3.575 to max 3.775 TCF / 3,575 BCF. A production surge can only happen with corresponding ideal supply side weather forecasts. You want 2.67 spot forward.
Trading NG is multi-dimensional thinking forward not back. Storage, weather, dateline and forecasts (heat, freezing, blizzards, hurricanes). Production omnipresent improves supply in change to favourable supply temp.
Caveats, plant disasters, gulf shutdown, pipeline disruptions, Govt interventions.
Cheers Manxcan