TimMcCracken wrote: GoldenMoose wrote: Great post Tim. Just wondering what your gameplan is as we approach Oct 17th? Will you be holding long? Stay GOLDEN, Moose.
TimMcCracken wrote: JailhouseTattoo wrote: Sometimes in markets like these puts and calls are your best friends, they allow for a much less risky adventure. True most options don't pan out but sometimes that is true of a short play or a long play. The difference is if you think short and buy a put and it goes against you , you only have a small amount per share to lose , ei it goes to zero, but shorting shares as we all see can be extremely dangerous. The same is true of calls , they can reward the huge upside moves almost the same as shars , a small premium loss against pure stock move but if it collapses on you you might lose a small premium and that is it in comparison to possible 30 dollar drop in a doomsday sell off. One way is to play both sides and cash out the winner when it handily covers more than both buys .
A $30 drop?
why don’t you state some facts to back up ridiculous statements.
You realize this company is going to have $5.6 billion in cash very soon which means it’s cash per share will be worth $16.97/ share +/- or approximately 25.71% of today’s share price.
Why don’t you compare that to other cash rich names;
Facebook = $42 billion in cash or $14.48 per share or 9.15% of their SP
Apple = $70.8 billion in cash or $14.49 per share or 6.67% of their SP
Your doomsday warning of a $30 drop would imply our cash position would be worth 48% of the share price ....
But keep playing the birthday candles against the computers.
Hi Moose,
As much as I would like to have a plan ... I don’t, which may seem reckless but it is the truth.
However, I monitor closely and it things change dramatically with no substance my opinion could change.
I also believe in the discipline of being diversified and that doesn’t mean holding 10 cannabis stocks ... it means holding the best in class stocks across many different sectors/ countries.
Over the years you don’t know how hard it was to not sell my stable as a rock dividend blue chips stocks and throw the money into Canopy, especially when I had the conviction and knew it was about to rip. But this has allowed me to sleep better at night as well as collecting dividends and taking advantage of compounded growth.
The only Cannabis stock I own is Canopy because in my opinion it is hands down by far the best in the industry.
I don’t like making stock price predictions but I do like to make comparisons based on data.
Compare the Constellation deals from 2017 and 2018;
The first deal Constellation paid a tiny premium of $12.98 and above a $12.75 previous close.
The stock ran to $21.72 which was 67% above their purchase price ... the stock then fell back and consolidated in a range of $17-$19 representing a -18% to -12% range.
Now look at the most recent deal it looks like such a major run because Constellation paid such a big premium @ $48.60 above a closing price of $32.50 +/-
The price hit $74.45 which is 53.19% above their purchase price ... if you run a consolidation percentages of minus 18-12% you get a range of $61 to $65 .... maybe we stay in this range for some time similar to the first deal.
I believe that in the medium term Constellation will ultimately buy 100% of the company for a greater price than $48.60.
Furthermore, I think the $5 billion is already spent ... in my opinion Constellation does not hand over $5 billion dollars without knowing exactly what it is going towards ... especially since they now control the board with 4 of 7 seats.
Think about it, Rob Sands owns 5.750 million Constellation shares which means he owns 3.42% of a $42 billion dollar company.
Which means based on his 3.42% ownership of Constellation you can say that $171 million of the $5 billion is basically coming from Rob Sands pocket ... accounting for both deals it puts him at about 5 million CGC shares with warrants .... which represents a market value of approximately $325,000,000 for him personally.
I don’t think you make these kinds of “speculation bets” or risk your reputation and wealth on garbage.
They have a plan and I am sure we will hear more once the deal officially closes.
Please don’t take my opinion too seriously, I am just a bird who bought Tweed based on a long term macro thesis that the brand name “Tweed” alone would be worth its weight in Market Cap.
Sometimes it is as simple as that.