RE:Sharing some Napkin MathUpdate on Napkin Math ..
https://miningir.com/digging-deeper-into-this-weeks-rnx-kambalda-gold-bonanza/
On March 22, RNC had announced its decision to offer the Beta Hunt Mine for sale in order to increase its focus on its Dumont nickel project (see below). This was in light of the company’s problems raising the capital to explore the Beta Hunt site, a situation which had led to uncertainty about the futures of its employees. Henry Dole, the miner who made the find, said that it had been a: ‘Much-needed boost for worker morale’"
This explains the depressed SP due to lack of funding and highly leveraged company w/ debt.
Since this depression is gone now - above 200dma 'normal' assumption to calculate the Beta Hunt gains are probably NOT reasonable at all.Yes, until 3/22 SP has C$0.25 support.
Spoiler:
Based on C$0.25/sh base, leading to balance sheet adjusted SP due to finding + Warrants of C$0.393/sh base.
Therefor SP only rose about 42.5% regarding to recurrent revenues in Beta Hunt @ C$0.56/sh. (see below) Above article also states:
This find was no accident. Rather, it was the result of a deliberate strategy at Beta Hunt to focus on small-scale mining in specimen gold areas, which has seen its grades increase for six consecutive quarters to 3.14 grams/tonne at the end of July. The mine had also begun targeting deeper sections of the host Lunnon Basalt formation than before, after drilling indicated improving grades with depth. This resulted in an increase in indicated resources from 92,000 ounces to 239,000 ounces in December 2017.
The recurrent 'no accident' Beta Hunt revenues are also backed by the 9/11 conference after the 1st big finding https://www.rncminerals.com/events?item=84
- More to come .. $500M+
- Result of a long process
- Grades increase .. not a one-off!
- Pyritic Settlements: A Continuous unit? Limited? A: Formations are continous a regional feature!
- If Pyritic comes in contact w/ Shear zone there is more concentration? A: Due to structural, chemical controls: Yes!
- Whereever there is shearing + pyritic elements are: more gold concentration probability: yes
- After 9/11 finding (significant cashflow): finding out how much more gold is there, then modelling cash flow & value etc
- More drilling analysis etc
- Underground Volcano -> Pyritic sediments
- Pyritic Black Smokers
- Multiple horizons/levels? Sediment has 2 bands.
- Still need to understand the significance ..
- Finding is from one band in particular
- Do we expect to hit more gold? Yes. (was 9/11 b4 they found more)
- Zone: 10oz/tonne !!! (-> Moon!)
- Other areas 2-3g / tonne w/ usually mining. Expect to be 5 times higher .. but we can not predict that (yet)
- Strategy: Significant mine, goal is to get to 4-5g/tonnes ..
- Continuous operations
- 6 active mining levels
- NCAV position? With the cash proceeds we should be in net cash positive!
(for sure as shown above, w/ last findings NCAV++)
+++
Here the Napkin Math update, based on proper Warrants + Options value and using above C$0.25/sh pre-finding baseline:
Warrants & Options from 9/11 Presentation slide 52:
- Warrants 23.2M @ C$0.43 avg = C$9.938M
-- 16.5M @ C$0.50 = C$8.25M
-- 5.9M @ C$0.24 = C$1.416M
-- 0.8M @ C$0.34 = C$0.272M
- Options 35.1M @ C$0.33 = C$11.583M
- Total W + O 58.3M @ C$0.369 avg = C$21.521M
2Q18 C$ 17.7M - 13.6M = 4.1M six month (17.7M was the discontinued mine deduction, no more)
2Q18 C$8.2M annually
9/20 $38M finding = C$49M -> C$57M CAD annually
- C$0.16/sh @ 356M OS
- C$0.1283/sh @ 482M fully diluted
If recurring .. and a real mine w/ much more to dig, you can multiple that by 10.
Cash: C$7M (2Q18) + C$49M (finding) = C$56M
Cash: C$7M (2Q18) + C$49M (finding) + C$20M (Warrants+Options) = C$76M
2Q18 OS 482M fully diluted
2Q18 Current Assets C$38.71M, Total Assets C$92.71M
2Q18 Current Liabilities C$72.28M (Debt C$22.21M)
2Q18 Total Liabilities C$82.20M
2Q18 Non Controlling Interest C$11.659M
2Q18 Current_Assets - Total-Liab C$(43.49M) -> Negative Working Capital
C$92.71M (Total Assest 2Q18) + C$49M (finding) + C$20M (Warrants+Options) = C$161.71M Total-Assets 3Q18
RNC SH Equity C$161.71M - C$82.20M - C$11.659M = C$67.85M or C$0.141/sh C$38.71M (Current Assest 2Q18) + C$49M (finding) + C$20M (Warrants+Options) = C$107.71M Current-Assets 3Q18
RNC SH NCAV C$107.71M - C$82.20M - C$11.659M = C$13.851M or C$0.029/sh Company is already NCAV Positive +++
OS 482M fully diluted
2Q18 Total Liabilities C$82.20M
2Q18 Non Controlling Interest C$11.659M
9/20 $38M gold finding = C$49M
200dma b4 findings was C$0.18/sh
- Cash_1 was C$7M
- MCAP_1 $86.76M fully diluted
- EV_1 C$161.96M (MCAP_1 + Total_Liabilities - Cash_1)
Before 2018-03-22 SP depression (no funding, selling Beta Hunt), SP support was C$0.25/sh
- Cash_1 was C$7M
- MCAP_0 $120.5M fully diluted
- EV_0 C$195.70M (MCAP_0 + Total_Liabilities - Cash_1)
Now @ C$0.56/sh SP
- Cash_2: C$7M + C$49M (finding) + C$20M (Warrants+Options) = C$76M
- MCAP_2 C$269.92M fully diluted
- EV_2 C$276.12M (MCAP_2 + Total_Liabilities - Cash_2)
- EV rose about C$114.16M or +70.49%
-- 2.33x the C$49M findings
-- 1.65x the C$69M findings + Warrants+Options
MCAP_1b by static EV_1 plus cash value addition, no growth
- MCAP_1b C$155.76M (EV_1 - TL + Cash_2) or C$0.323 fully diluted
MCAP_0b by static EV_0 plus cash value addition, no growth
- MCAP_0b C$189.50M (EV_0 - TL + Cash_2) or C$0.393 fully diluted
Dunno how depressed MCAP was due to debt and all that .. but surely much more
So the SP move up until C$0.393/sh seems to be just a correction on findings and Warrants
A simple balance sheet correction.
Based on C$0.25/sh base, leading to balance sheet adjusted SP due to finding + Warrants of C$0.393/sh base.
Therefor SP only rose about 42.5% regarding to recurrent revenues in Beta Hunt @ C$0.56/sh. Income and growth wise:
- 2Q18: C$ 17.7M - 13.6M = 4.1M six month (17.7M was the discontinued mine deduction, no more)
- Around C$8M annually operational income
-Annsual income: C$49M findings + C$8M previous = C$57M
-- C$0.16/sh @ 356M OS @ P/E 1
-- C$0.1283/sh @ 482M fully diluted @ P/E 1
If recurring .. and a real mine w/ much more to dig, you can multiple that by 10.