Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

RE:RE:RE:RE:Lids about Break Open!!! Boooom!!!

[orlandofl]

orlandofl wrote:

orlandofl wrote:

KoolInvestor wrote: A big joke, ya  christhmas is coming....lol

Keep dreaming buddy, this thing will take you to hell, goodluck. Remember oil is bullish, just BTE is bearish, makes no sense...

biggest problems for BTE are hedges and debt

hedges will keep Q3 from being profitable - it will be close to a break-even, but with hedges they will likely have a small loss - free cash flow will be decent and they'll be able to apply that to debt, but nothing to get excited about

Q4 will be profitable and better free cash flow with RRX merged for an entire quarter, but hedges still holding it back a bit

Q1 the hedge problem goes away - they show more free cash flow and are profitable with growing production

Debt should not be a problem and will get paid down significantly, but it has also held th stock back

we just aren't going to get a strong bump on earnings until after Q1 which will be May of 2019

Q4 will be decent, but that won't be until Feb or March 2019

if oil prices go up we should go up higher and they'll make more free cash flow, but a little less than half production is capped

and WCS prices are too low right now

so there are obstacles for this in the short term - the question is where will prices be in 1st half of 2019 for oil

the biggest positive for longs - is the share price - it is very, very, very low

the stock should be 50% higher right now and poisted to go higher - we'll see

I guess between the debt, hedging and wcs and pipeline issues and being in Canada are going to hold this down right now - I got off my MRO, which I did very well with to get this at such low prices, but it seems to be struggling to get some movement - the RRX should help, but the profits aren't going to roll in until Q1 and then they'll be decent, but before then?  We'll see profits in Q4, but that is still a ways off until they are reported and again will be muted a fair amount with the hedges - there is an opportunity that another company will go after them depending on what is going on with oil prices and the current economic environment over the next 6 months - they could become a takeover target if prices are still around $3 USD - if someone could get them for $5 USD I think they would be getting a steal

something else to think about - when hedges come off, they should add in the neighborhood of an additional $100M in revenue per quarter at current oil prices, which will mostly go to the bottom line