Purveyor wrote: OK. Such a short sentence but it contains so much!
1) People on this board don't understand leverage... if they did, they would see Baytex debt is not an issue, it is a means to an end to build a bigger busienss, which they are doing very well. Long term the oil issues will shake out. Dutch Shell/China are about to build a LNG terminal on shore in Western Canada.
https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/09/27/the-next-cycle-of-lng-investments-is-set-to-kick-off-in-canada.html
If this can get moving, no reason the KM pipeline can't get moving. Some indigenous consultations and we are back on track.
2) NAFTA for non-US partners brings protections, which the US is attempting to remove. Those are the "crown jewel" of NAFTA. So if you take that out, put the rest in the trash can because its meaningless. See interesting article on this from a year ago ... same issue, spinning and going nowhere:
https://business.financialpost.com/news/the-crown-jewel-of-nafta-why-canada-must-fight-to-retain-dispute-resolution-rule-despite-tough-talks
3) Before NAFTA we had what? nothing really. An old trade deal that didn't do much, hence Nafta. So let it go if we don't keep the most important pieces... you know, to stop the "DJT's" of the agreement bullying the other parties. Without that, tariffs can be imposed at will anyway, so why sign a deal that says "Yeah you can kick me in the a$$ anytime you like and I'll Iask for more."
Now, what happens if no deal signed and tarriffs keep getting hiked on? Well the cost of everything goes up for US citizens. That's already starting. No resolution means the support base will start to fragment and you got yourself some big problems.
You mention silo's, but WTF, DJT is throwing tariff's on everything because he thinks the US can be an island? Better watch out for what you wish for.
Don't get me wrong, both sides will bring some pain and receive some pain. But I will predict this... if no deal is signed, Canada will make big moves to decouple from the US, and when done, Canada will be selling more elsewhere. That means less dependency on a US base, and more diversity in market, which is good for Canada. It really is a stupid situation for the US to push.
fellowship wrote: You need Nafta to be able to leverage yourself when selling...this silos thinking got us in the position we are today, completely naked...