MonstersInc wrote: The problem with the market is most quoting systems don't provide the "fully dilluted"market cap. So players are playing around with available share count which is tiny for both TRUL (TCNNF US) and TLRY. If anyone uses a good system that reports proper trading (float), total issued and fully dilluted (with warrrants, options etc), please share. These new issues are a killer unless you dig through the corporate filings on EDGAR. It's hard to get the full picture on what are really important numbers and metrics.
What TLRY has is a Nasdaq listing for Canadian assets. That makes it available to the world today. Trulieve runs on a different clock. It's US assets not allowed on the Nasdaq or NYSE so the access to capital is restricted. Conventional big money doesn''t trade on the OTC. TRUL is tied to the US federal legalisation. So it's really a Jeff Session/US Fed type of play versus a Trudeau/Canadian Senate type of play.
And yes, smaller Monsters know that when the federal US ban is lifted, the US will propel itself as #1 on market cap. Why? Because the recreational legal market in the US is already much bigger than what Canada will be. Canada will always be lagging. Recreational is already legal in CA, OR, WA, NV, CO among others.
Interesting times and this is an easy multibagger from its $11 US price per share once the "illegal at the US Federal Level" overhand goes away. With Cannabis coming off Schedule 1 in the US, people will flock to the #1 US producer. And that, by revenue and revenue growth is currently Trulieve.
Watch as the flood of investment moves from expensive Canadian paper to cheap US weed paper. But that will only happen when it's legal (or near legal) at the Federal level in the US.
GreenNme wrote: It would be great if everyone could assume the share count will be fully exercised and outstanding shares at 110 million with current valuation at $1.6 billion which is still way undervalued. Basing valuations off the 11 mil tradeable and 7.5 to be added is very misleading and I want folks to truly understand that this is a $1.6 billion dollar company, going to $16 billion in 2 years when Florida opens up recreational sales. If the largest Canadian producer is worth $20 billion I cant see why the largest (publicly traded) US player couldn't get to the same valuation over time.
420mtl wrote: Base on 18.5M shares...Issued 7.5 plus 11M available since end of the year.
How do you value Trulieve?
Marketcap could be $465M (LibertyHeatlh LHS). $25.1 per share............
If you think higher $650M (EmeraldHealth EMH). $35.1 .........................
Maybe a bit higher $875M (OrganiGram OGI). $47.25 ........................
Or going Unicorn $1.32B (CannTrust TRST). $71.35 ........................
Ok looking higher $4.18B (Aphria. APH). $225.95 ......................
Let's go for luck... $7.77B (Future is Green). $420 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Why not compare..$13.37B us (Tilray TLRY). $722 usd ....................
CanopyGrowth WEED at $14.43B put TRUL at $780
Have a good week-end....
Future is green