RE:RE:RE:RBC analystSPCEO1 wrote: stephanedodier wrote: This is from the RBC report, I am also a RBC customer, so he base his valuation on TROGARZO sales of C$300M.
Our view: TH reported their first full quarter of Trogarzo revenues which came in slightly above expectations, as well as a strong quarter for Egrifta-- indicating that the expanded salesforce improved commercial execution as expected and the Trogarzo launch is on track with our expected patient volumes as the company builds out the market. We continue to look towards more certainty on the out-year revenue opportunity and remain Sector Perform rated, though we view this as a positive signal that the company may be on track to achieve our C$300M peak sales estimate for Trogarzo.
The RBC analyst's peak estimate of C$321 million in Trogarzo sales occurs in 2027. In contrast, the Canaccord analyst has a forecast of C$328 million in 2022. Both are new US-based analysts that have just bult their models in the last month or so. How is it that they could have such massively different expectations when they are dealing with the same facts? It is hard to explain as just a difference of opinion given the chasm between the two new analysts.
So, the RBC peak sales forecast is not exciting at all since he has Trogarzo sales crawling very slowly to that level over many years. All the other analysts have much better quicker Trogarzo growth in the early years but there are still huge differences. NBF has sales peaking in 2023 at C$231.9 million. Echelon has sales at C$329 in 2021 and sales peaking in 2025 at over C$500 million. Mackie has C$419 million in 2020 with peak sales of C$810 million in 2023. That is an incredible spread of sales expectations.
What is amazing is that the spread in target prices among the analysts is much narrower than their sales expectations for trogarzo.
Also, since we are complaining about the RBC's analysts low estimates, we should probably give equal complaining time to the very high Mackie sales numbers. As the quarters move forward, these very diverse revenue expectations should move closer together and likely towards the middle of the very wide range.
So if the RBC estimate is $321mil in 2027 that presumably includes everything on the horizon. Europe, IM version, maybe other stuff. Does he break things down at all? Does he say what the present US market is worth for example?