RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Today's newsFirst, let me start by saying I hope all of you are right. I would like nothing more than to see this go well over a buck a share. Personally , I will be selling some of my holdings if and when we hit .40/share , but will see what material changes are occuring at that time. As I have said, we can all speculate, and there is no harm in that. You provide a good comparison to Wesdone, and even Wally, in their October presentation, do two comparisons. One is to the Sugar Zone from harte Gold. see pages 21 and 22 for clarification.
They do clearly state :
Exploration Target*: Ramp-access mine to 800 m depth 600,000 - 800,000 oz Au 10 year mine life 60,000 oz annual production and then provide a lengthy disclaimer that this is all conceptual in nature and based on future developments.
so where does that leave us . Based on information we have right now, can anyone predict what we should be 3 or 6 months from now. Obviously people are selling shares right now as I type this for .25 or .26 cents per share. I'm pretty sure those sellers do NOT agree with anyones price speculation, and see this as dead money for now, o0r do not see any future catalyst that will take us higher. If everyone thought a buck was imminent, there would be a buying frenzy. Even Eric Sprott would be grabbing everything he could at these levels.
Let's face it, we all had a chance to back up the truck in August and buy as many shares as we could at .08 measly cents. Even Sprott waited to pull the trigger a bit later, and still got cheap shares at .13 , and later bought out Lonmins shares for .165 a share. So noone has the crystal ball. Maybe I'm overly cautious as I've been here for over a dozen years. Long enough to remember Duluth and the Maturi find. As far as I know, that was sold to Anto and never mined, so I tend to be a little suspicious and pessimistic.
Hope that helps.
KW_08 wrote: Jicoop, you're not allowing for a speculative premium which is perfectly valid. Suggesting a cap of $500m+ has plenty of math and previous examples to back it up. The most simple comparison that comes to mind is Wesdome, who's grades are about half of what Fenelon is displaying, and they're producing ~70,000 oz per year which is similar to Fenelon forecasts.
However, as stated Fenelon grades appear to be roughly 2x what Wesdome has. Therefore, Wallbridge operating costs should be significantly less, margins greater, and WM is more insulated from a gold price downturn.
Speculative premiums are valid. If I believe that WM is more valuable than Wesdome for the reasons stated above, and Wesdome is at a cap of $500m, a Wallbridge price forecast of ~$1.25 per share makes perfect sense. I'd be willing to bet that Sprott has that price, or somewhere in that area as a target. Rick Rule was very specific when he said they're looking for 10x. They purchased WM at ~$0.15.
Eventually WM will have to prove it and produce it, but in the meantime loading up here and speculating on cashing above $1/share makes a hell of a lot of sense, and the evidence backs it up.
To suggest WM at a price of $0.50 or even $0.75 by Christmas is a very comfortable call in my mind based on the many NR, the pending bulk sample, and ongoing drilling. Also...under promise/over deliver.
jicoop wrote: whosebid, not singling you out, and do appreciate that you and others here may have some mining savvy and knowledge. I see your explanation to andrewqp and see that you are waiting for a catalyst to catapult us to the next level. What that is, we don't know.
Wally states in their October presentation that they expect to have proven and probable of 600,000 to 800,000 oz at Fenelon. As for a mining plan, costs , etc. we are all in the dark about that.
Now maybe if the price of gold goes parabolic in the next 6 to 12 months, or we start seeing core samples like the Fathers day find by RNX , or the Habanero and Chipotle seams start showing even wider core samples further down, then who know.
What galls me is the wild valuations and price calls from posters here, knowledgeable or not. Just asking people to show me the math, based on everything we know TODAY, and prove why we will be at 50 cents , a buck by Christmas. Show me the numbers. If I think they make sense and are correct, then obviously everyone would be backing up the truck and loading some more. I'm not at this current level.
I have been posting on Wally boards for a long time now. Some weeks you could post and maybe get a reply a week or two later, after 10 reads or so if lucky. Had a different post ID at that time. lost it in a computer crash, forgot the password so had to start fresh. DUH !
I'm long Wally just to remind everyone. I welcome some valid stabs at valuations to be presented.
Coop