Law of ProbabilitiesGood to hear from you ACE.
I found 2 cents and thought I would put it in. The frustrated cmments by the Arbitration Tribunal were quite telling, in spite of the 60 day extension they are basically saying the Government will be unable to present a decent case. So, does the government plan to do so? I doubt it, my guess is the 60 days is to provide wiggle room for negotiation.
About 6 years ago Larry Woods was strongly recommending that Greystar/EOM should take Colombia to arbitration due to their creeping dismantling of our long term plans. Failure to do so by EOM just resulted in more nails being pounded into the EOM coffin. Those additional nails just add to the current arbitration claim. It is clear from the memorial that EOM had specufic guarantees from the government preserving its claims, including more than once the government declaring EOM an entity of "National Interest". The government broke every commitment to EOM. The disastrous implementation of the ridiculous, ill thought out Paramo boundaries relegated it to the dustbin.
So, where does that leave the current government who do not have the fortitude to enter into a battle they cannot win. If they go through with the arbitration struggle, it will demonstrate they are not open to international mining development. Nor do they have the the expectation of avoiding an unfavourable decision that could see them liable for up to $780 million.
It leaves them looking to escape a very bad scenario. Nothing in the arbitration process precludes reopening negotiations with EOM. They, and everyone else knows our claims are not in Paramo. Claim 3452 is the critical concession previously exempted by the government from any Paramo consideration and the last to be "cancelled". The 3452 claims are the key for EOM and for the government. They have solid grounds to reinstate the previous exemption. 3452 forms the basis of the arbitration claim. It is well below any future Paramo designation. Reinstatement gets this monkey off the government's back, gives Minesa a solid path forward on acquisition from EOM.
The law of probabilities sees a negotiated settlement reinstating claim 3452. EOM will never mine but Minesa is poised and will be licking it's lips if this is settled. There are no doubt discussions ongoing on a few fronts. The fact that EOM has not activated arbitration financing only increases my opinion on this.
Anybody think I should take my 2 cents off the table?