RE:RE:RE:Colombian PotluckGeez Natuaral, I dislike getting to the forecasting business. But we should look at the factors that will apply to any buyout.
1. Tenor will have the major say in accepting any payout.
2. The arbitration claim is very strong, but winning it and collecting are two different things.
3. It will no doubt be Tenor that has the major say in accepting a buyout vis a vis the arbitration potential.
4. The arbitration period is shortened so Tenor and the board will assess the potential return and whether the wait is worth it. For example, is it worth it to wait say, 2 years for a return of maybe $400-$500 million US on arbitration and then work to collect it. I doubt the government would pony up and seizing assets would be required.
5. On the other hand if Minesa offers $350-$400 million US, that may be enough to get Tenor onside.
If the buyout is accepted, a quick calculation works out to about 65-75 cents US per share on the outstanding shares. About 78% of a buyout total is allocated to the CVR and about 22% to outstanding shares. Add to the SP return the percentage of the CVR portion you bought into.
We will take a hit if this drags and the arbitration needs legal funding. I hope this is clear that this is only one man's opinion.